Wolf Analytics

2026 college football

Week 5 projections

October 1–3 · 59 games. Projected scores come from the Wolf models, fit only on games played before this week. The market line is the current ESPN line (DraftKings). A lean appears when a model and the market differ by 3+ points.

Leans show disagreement with the market, not an edge. Across every backtest so far, the closing line has been more accurate than any of our models. See the model record.

Thursday, October 1 · 2 games

7:00 PM CTat New Mexico State
Western Kentucky27.5
New Mexico State28.4
Wolf line
New Mexico State −1.0
Market
New Mexico State −1.5
Total W / M
55.9 / 55.5
In line with market
Matchup →
8:00 PM CTat Tulsa
North Texas33.8
Tulsa24.5
Wolf line
North Texas −9.3
Market
North Texas −3.0
Total W / M
58.3 / 56.5
Lean North Texas −3.0
Matchup →

Friday, October 2 · 3 games

6:00 PM CTat Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh29.3
Virginia Tech25.1
Wolf line
Pittsburgh −4.2
Market
Virginia Tech −2.5
Total W / M
54.4 / 54.5
Lean Pittsburgh +2.5
Matchup →
6:00 PM CTat Delaware
Liberty27.7
Delaware23.8
Wolf line
Liberty −3.9
Market
Liberty −6.5
Total W / M
51.5 / 49.5
In line with market
Matchup →
7:00 PM CTat Northwestern
Penn State24.5
Northwestern23.4
Wolf line
Penn State −1.1
Market
Penn State −2.5
Total W / M
47.9 / 45.5
In line with market
Matchup →

Saturday, October 3 · 54 games

11:00 AM CTat North Carolina
Notre Dame35.6
North Carolina12.3
Wolf line
Notre Dame −23.3
Market
Notre Dame −22.5
Total W / M
47.8 / 46.5
In line with market
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Wake Forest
Stanford19.4
Wake Forest34.0
Wolf line
Wake Forest −14.6
Market
Wake Forest −14.0
Total W / M
53.5 / 53.5
In line with market
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat SMU
Boston College16.3
SMU35.8
Wolf line
SMU −19.5
Market
SMU −21.5
Total W / M
52.2 / 55.5
Lean Under 55.5
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat UConn
Syracuse26.6
UConn29.5
Wolf line
UConn −2.9
Market
Syracuse −7.0
Total W / M
56.1 / 50.5
Lean UConn +7.0 Lean Over 50.5
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Minnesota
Michigan24.4
Minnesota22.6
Wolf line
Michigan −1.9
Market
Michigan −5.5
Total W / M
47.0 / 43.5
Lean Minnesota +5.5 Lean Over 43.5
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Air Force
Navy27.4
Air Force29.5
Wolf line
Air Force −2.1
Market
Air Force −3.5
Total W / M
56.9 / 46.5
Lean Over 46.5
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Mississippi State
Alabama34.8
Mississippi State27.4
Wolf line
Alabama −7.4
Market
Alabama −6.0
Total W / M
62.3 / 60.5
In line with market
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Iowa State
West Virginia20.2
Iowa State33.5
Wolf line
Iowa State −13.2
Market
Iowa State −3.0
Total W / M
53.7 / 53.5
Lean Iowa State −3.0
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Houston
UCF23.8
Houston30.1
Wolf line
Houston −6.3
Market
Houston −11.5
Total W / M
54.0 / 51.5
Lean UCF +11.5
Matchup →
11:00 AM CTat Kansas
Middle Tennessee17.3
Kansas34.5
Wolf line
Kansas −17.1
Market
Kansas −19.5
Total W / M
51.8 / 50.5
In line with market
Matchup →
11:30 AM CTat Wisconsin
Michigan State19.2
Wisconsin25.9
Wolf line
Wisconsin −6.8
Market
Wisconsin −10.0
Total W / M
45.1 / 43.5
Lean Michigan State +10.0
Matchup →
11:45 AM CTat Georgia
Vanderbilt18.7
Georgia39.1
Wolf line
Georgia −20.4
Market
Georgia −25.5
Total W / M
57.7 / 50.5
Lean Vanderbilt +25.5 Lean Over 50.5
Matchup →
12:00 PM CTat Buffalo
Western Michigan32.2
Buffalo16.5
Wolf line
Western Michigan −15.8
Market
Western Michigan −14.0
Total W / M
48.7 / 46.5
In line with market
Matchup →
1:00 PM CTat Ball State
Toledo40.0
Ball State16.9
Wolf line
Toledo −23.1
Market
Toledo −20.5
Total W / M
56.8 / 52.5
Lean Over 52.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan20.7
Massachusetts29.4
Wolf line
Massachusetts −8.7
Market
Massachusetts −6.0
Total W / M
50.2 / 48.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Tennessee
Auburn22.9
Tennessee31.7
Wolf line
Tennessee −8.8
Market
Tennessee −7.0
Total W / M
54.6 / 53.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Miami (OH)
Bowling Green15.8
Miami (OH)32.1
Wolf line
Miami (OH) −16.3
Market
Miami (OH) −13.5
Total W / M
47.9 / 43.5
Lean Over 43.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Charlotte
Memphis36.3
Charlotte19.6
Wolf line
Memphis −16.7
Market
Memphis −20.5
Total W / M
55.9 / 52.5
Lean Charlotte +20.5 Lean Over 52.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Iowa
Ohio State27.0
Iowa20.0
Wolf line
Ohio State −7.0
Market
Ohio State −14.5
Total W / M
47.0 / 45.5
Lean Iowa +14.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Central Michigan
Akron20.3
Central Michigan27.0
Wolf line
Central Michigan −6.7
Market
Central Michigan −6.5
Total W / M
47.3 / 46.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Florida State
Virginia27.9
Florida State24.5
Wolf line
Virginia −3.4
Market
Virginia −2.5
Total W / M
52.3 / 51.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat North Dakota State
Wyoming11.6
North Dakota State31.4
Wolf line
North Dakota State −19.8
Market
North Dakota State −17.5
Total W / M
43.1 / 44.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Kent State
Ohio33.5
Kent State22.5
Wolf line
Ohio −11.0
Market
Ohio −3.5
Total W / M
56.0 / 50.5
Lean Ohio −3.5 Lean Over 50.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Georgia State
Old Dominion26.2
Georgia State29.3
Wolf line
Georgia State −3.1
Market
Georgia State −2.5
Total W / M
55.6 / 51.5
Lean Over 51.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat UAB
SamfordFCS11.8
UAB40.8
Wolf line
UAB −29.0
Market
UAB −30.5
Total W / M
52.6 / 52.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat UNLV
California21.7
UNLV28.1
Wolf line
UNLV −6.3
Market
UNLV −2.5
Total W / M
49.8 / 53.5
Lean UNLV −2.5 Lean Under 53.5
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat Missouri
Florida31.8
Missouri26.4
Wolf line
Florida −5.4
Market
Florida −5.5
Total W / M
58.2 / 57.5
In line with market
Matchup →
2:30 PM CTat NC State
Louisville31.3
NC State31.2
Wolf line
Louisville −0.1
Market
Louisville −3.5
Total W / M
62.5 / 58.5
Lean NC State +3.5 Lean Over 58.5
Matchup →
2:45 PM CTat James Madison
Marshall14.2
James Madison43.3
Wolf line
James Madison −29.1
Market
James Madison −18.5
Total W / M
57.5 / 56.5
Lean James Madison −18.5
Matchup →
3:00 PM CTat Nebraska
Maryland17.2
Nebraska37.0
Wolf line
Nebraska −19.8
Market
Nebraska −14.5
Total W / M
54.3 / 52.5
Lean Nebraska −14.5
Matchup →
3:00 PM CTat New Mexico
UTEP12.8
New Mexico42.5
Wolf line
New Mexico −29.7
Market
New Mexico −22.5
Total W / M
55.2 / 47.5
Lean New Mexico −22.5 Lean Over 47.5
Matchup →
3:15 PM CTat Illinois
Purdue21.7
Illinois38.6
Wolf line
Illinois −16.8
Market
Illinois −10.0
Total W / M
60.3 / 62.5
Lean Illinois −10.0
Matchup →
3:15 PM CTat South Carolina
Kentucky24.6
South Carolina28.6
Wolf line
South Carolina −4.0
Market
South Carolina −3.0
Total W / M
53.2 / 54.5
In line with market
Matchup →
5:00 PM CTat Florida Atlantic
Texas SouthernFCS10.5
Florida Atlantic47.2
Wolf line
Florida Atlantic −36.7
Market
Florida Atlantic −44.5
Total W / M
57.7 / 61.5
Lean Texas Southern +44.5 Lean Under 61.5
Matchup →
5:00 PM CTat Colorado State
Oregon State30.1
Colorado State28.1
Wolf line
Oregon State −2.0
Market
Oregon State −6.5
Total W / M
58.2 / 62.5
Lean Colorado State +6.5 Lean Under 62.5
Matchup →
6:00 PM CTat Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern26.6
Coastal Carolina25.6
Wolf line
Georgia Southern −1.0
Market
Georgia Southern −1.5
Total W / M
52.3 / 53.5
In line with market
Matchup →
6:00 PM CTat Texas A&M
Arkansas19.5
Texas A&M35.2
Wolf line
Texas A&M −15.8
Market
Texas A&M −14.0
Total W / M
54.7 / 50.5
Lean Over 50.5
Matchup →
6:00 PM CTat TCU
BYU27.7
TCU23.4
Wolf line
BYU −4.3
Market
BYU −6.5
Total W / M
51.2 / 47.5
Lean Over 47.5
Matchup →
6:00 PM CTat Rice
UTSA36.2
Rice21.0
Wolf line
UTSA −15.1
Market
UTSA −12.5
Total W / M
57.2 / 55.5
In line with market
Matchup →
6:00 PM CTat South Alabama
UL Monroe19.3
South Alabama39.5
Wolf line
South Alabama −20.3
Market
South Alabama −14.0
Total W / M
58.8 / 57.5
Lean South Alabama −14.0
Matchup →
6:30 PM CTat South Florida
Temple21.7
South Florida33.6
Wolf line
South Florida −12.0
Market
South Florida −6.5
Total W / M
55.3 / 48.5
Lean South Florida −6.5 Lean Over 48.5
Matchup →
6:30 PM CTat Louisiana Tech
Army26.6
Louisiana Tech24.9
Wolf line
Army −1.7
Market
Army −1.5
Total W / M
51.6 / 47.5
Lean Over 47.5
Matchup →
6:30 PM CTat Colorado
Texas Tech33.2
Colorado17.5
Wolf line
Texas Tech −15.7
Market
Texas Tech −13.5
Total W / M
50.7 / 50.5
In line with market
Matchup →
6:30 PM CTat Clemson
Miami33.8
Clemson16.6
Wolf line
Miami −17.3
Market
Miami −16.5
Total W / M
50.4 / 47.5
In line with market
Matchup →
6:30 PM CTat USC
Washington23.7
USC32.3
Wolf line
USC −8.6
Market
USC −8.5
Total W / M
56.0 / 58.5
In line with market
Matchup →
6:30 PM CTat Boise State
Utah State16.6
Boise State34.0
Wolf line
Boise State −17.4
Market
Boise State −18.5
Total W / M
50.6 / 51.5
In line with market
Matchup →
6:45 PM CTat LSU
McNeeseFCS-1.1
LSU50.3
Wolf line
LSU −51.4
Market
LSU −53.5
Total W / M
49.1 / 62.5
Lean Under 62.5
Matchup →
7:00 PM CTat Louisiana
Arkansas State21.7
Louisiana29.4
Wolf line
Louisiana −7.7
Market
Louisiana −6.5
Total W / M
51.1 / 47.5
Lean Over 47.5
Matchup →
7:00 PM CTat Rutgers
Indiana41.2
Rutgers16.0
Wolf line
Indiana −25.2
Market
Indiana −24.5
Total W / M
57.2 / 56.5
In line with market
Matchup →
8:30 PM CTat Washington State
Fresno State20.9
Washington State24.6
Wolf line
Washington State −3.7
Market
Washington State −1.5
Total W / M
45.5 / 45.5
In line with market
Matchup →
9:30 PM CTat San Diego State
Texas State28.7
San Diego State27.6
Wolf line
Texas State −1.1
Market
Texas State −8.5
Total W / M
56.3 / 57.5
Lean San Diego State +8.5
Matchup →
9:30 PM CTat Arizona State
Baylor25.0
Arizona State28.7
Wolf line
Arizona State −3.6
Market
Arizona State −3.5
Total W / M
53.7 / 49.5
Lean Over 49.5
Matchup →
10:00 PM CTat Arizona
Cincinnati24.8
Arizona30.1
Wolf line
Arizona −5.2
Market
Arizona −6.5
Total W / M
54.9 / 56.5
In line with market
Matchup →
10:59 PM CTat Hawai'i
San José State23.4
Hawai'i27.3
Wolf line
Hawai'i −3.9
Market
Hawai'i −3.0
Total W / M
50.7 / 50.5
In line with market
Matchup →