Accuracy against the market
Model record
Residual standard deviation (points) of each model's projection vs the actual result, on games where every model and the closing line priced the game. Lower is better. The closing line is the market benchmark.
No model here beats the closing line yet. Wolf Kalman comes within 0.39 points on 2025 margins, the closest of any model we have built. Leans on this site show where a model disagrees with the market. They are not betting advice.
2025 season (held-out test) · 1596 games
| Model | Margin error | Gap to line | Total error | Gap to line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolf Kalman | 15.44 | +0.39 | 16.00 | +0.66 |
| Wolf Decay | 16.14 | +1.09 | 15.64 | +0.30 |
| Elo (baseline) | 16.54 | +1.49 | 15.72 | +0.38 |
| Closing line | 15.05 | — | 15.34 | — |
2026 weeks 1–4 · 331 games
| Model | Margin error | Gap to line | Total error | Gap to line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolf Kalman | 16.23 | +1.70 | 15.85 | +1.39 |
| Wolf Decay | 16.66 | +2.13 | 15.16 | +0.70 |
| Elo (baseline) | 17.20 | +2.67 | 15.42 | +0.96 |
| Closing line | 14.53 | — | 14.46 | — |